DECISION ANALYSIS IN PEST FORECASTING

K.L. HEONG

SUMMARY

Decision analysis is an approach which allows one to carry out a thorough and logical evaluation of alternative strategies. It has been used quite extensively in management sciences, particularly in the evaluation of business strategies. In crop protection, where decisions are often made under uncertainty, this approach may also be adopted. The paper describes the use of decision analysis to handle pest surveillance data, and to select the best control tactic from a range of available alternatives. Using the Bayesian approach on a hypothetical example, the process of converting insect forecasts into a recommended action is illustrated. Probability assignments and pest management delivery systems are also discussed.

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